Niftys Journey to Mount 10k and beyond!!!

  

As we write this, the country is witnessing path-breaking reforms like demonetization, GST roll-out etc. and the country’s leading stock market index Nifty 50 is in the touching distance of the coveted five digit mark of Mt. 10000.
Amidst the global liquidity flush and local political will to push for reforms, the markets have been scaling new highs backed by the confidence of the institutional and retail investor in the India growth story.

With just 2.8% of the global GDP pie and growth rates in the range of 8-9%, Indian markets come across as safest investment destination in the largely dull global environment which is marred by low growth rates and deflationary trends.
WEEKLY CHART


Backdrop
After the unprecedented rally of 2007, the markets went into an almost eight yearlong consolidation grind following the global financial crisis. The period saw nifty trading largely sideways amidst the global growth concerns and earnings uncertainty. The decisive mandate for the Modi govt. in the 2014 general elections gave the much needed breakout thrust for the markets which saw the Nifty rising from the 6500 levels to the current 9920 levels.

May 2014 onwards...
With 35% weightage in the Nifty, financial services scrip’s were the front runners in pushing to the higher orbits. The rally also saw the broad-based participation with many of the midcaps scrip’s notching up handsome gains. Various initiatives taken by the Govt. across the social-economic strata paved wave for opening up of new growth avenues.

SchemesBenefited Sectors
Swachh Bharat AbhiyanTiles, Sanitary
UDAN schemeAviation
Namami GangeWater Projects
Skills IndiaEducation sector
Housing for AllCement, Building Materials
Infra pushBanking, Cement, Road Building

Move Ahead...
With long term Nifty structure bullish, expect the Nifty to head towards coveted five digit mark of 10000 towards the target zone of 10600-11200. Some of the parameters like M-cap / GDP ratio (0.85) also indicate further headroom for market to scale new high. Investors can continue investing in quality scrip’s and consolidate the portfolio holdings in any buying opportunity. In near term, expect 9950 to act as resistance before the index finally takes out the Mt. 10k.



Swapneel V Mantri |Technical Analyst – Institutions

He has over 8 years of experience in equity markets. Starting with portfolio management, he is currently advising top institutional clients with day to day market and sectorial analysis based on chart patterns, technical indicators and inter market analysis. He is an IT engineer by qualification and has completed the prestigious Chartered Market Technician (CMT) program conducted by Market Technicians Association, New York (USA). Specialises in pattern based positional calls for Institutional Clients. He is regular feature on ET tech view section wherein he shares his weekly views on nifty. 18 0 Google +0 0 Digg0

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